With the 2015 NFL season approaching, establishing a draft strategy for the upcoming fantasy football season is essential. In years past, I haven’t done all that well in my league. I could attribute my woes to bad luck (who knew Drew Brees would be such a dud last year), but the fact is I’ve established a trend of mediocrity that I would like to break. Last year, I basically based my decisions on the rankings provided by the big sports sites (e.g., NFL.com, ESPN, CBS Sports). I want to try something a little more involved this time around.
There are two things to consider when picking a player: how much better the player is than all other players in the fantasy universe and how much better the player is than all other players in the same position. This ranking accounts for both by combining a positional Z-score (vs. all other players in the positional population) and overall Z-score (vs. all players in the overall fantasy population) based on the auction value given by ESPN (8/18/2015). The Z-score is how many standard deviations a player is from the average of the relevant population.
The Z-score also depends on the universe being considered. Therefore, we average over two scenarios: Filling the starting roster (for a 12-team league, N=12 for QB, 30 for RB (12 for RB1, 12 for RB2, and 6 for flex), 30 for WR, and 12 for TE) and including all top 150 players (excluding DST and K)). Missing values are given the minimum Z-score for the position. Basically, this rating attempts to account for a lot of different factors.
| Rank | Position | Player | Value ($) | Average Combined Z-Score | ESPN Rank |
| 1 | TE | Rob Gronkowski | 43.00 | 2.16 | 12 |
| 2 | WR | Antonio Brown | 51.00 | 2.15 | 6 |
| 3 | RB | Le’Veon Bell | 55.00 | 2.15 | 1 |
| 4 | RB | Adrian Peterson | 54.00 | 2.09 | 2 |
| 5 | RB | Eddie Lacy | 54.00 | 2.09 | 3 |
| 6 | RB | Jamaal Charles | 53.00 | 2.03 | 4 |
| 7 | RB | Marshawn Lynch | 52.00 | 1.97 | 5 |
| 8 | WR | Demaryius Thomas | 47.00 | 1.88 | 10 |
| 9 | RB | CJ Anderson | 50.00 | 1.85 | 7 |
| 10 | RB | Matt Forte | 49.00 | 1.78 | 8 |
| 11 | RB | DeMarco Murray | 48.00 | 1.72 | 9 |
| 12 | QB | Aaron Rodgers | 37.00 | 1.58 | 20 |
| 13 | WR | Dez Bryant | 42.00 | 1.55 | 13 |
| 14 | RB | LeSean McCoy | 45.00 | 1.54 | 11 |
| 15 | WR | Odell Beckham Jr | 40.00 | 1.42 | 15 |
| 16 | WR | Jordy Nelson | 39.00 | 1.35 | 16 |
| 17 | RB | Jeremy Hill | 41.00 | 1.30 | 14 |
| 18 | WR | Julio Jones | 38.00 | 1.29 | 17 |
| 19 | QB | Andrew Luck | 32.00 | 1.23 | 25 |
| 20 | WR | Calvin Johnson | 37.00 | 1.22 | 18 |
| 21 | WR | AJ Green | 37.00 | 1.22 | 19 |
| 22 | WR | Alshon Jeffery | 36.00 | 1.15 | 21 |
| 23 | TE | Jimmy Graham | 27.00 | 1.02 | 32 |
| 24 | WR | Randall Cobb | 34.00 | 1.02 | 22 |
| 25 | WR | TY Hilton | 33.00 | 0.95 | 23 |
| 26 | WR | Mike Evans | 31.00 | 0.82 | 26 |
| 27 | RB | Mark Ingram | 32.00 | 0.76 | 24 |
| 28 | WR | Emmanuel Sanders | 30.00 | 0.75 | 27 |
| 29 | WR | Kelvin Benjamin | 29.00 | 0.69 | 30 |
| 30 | RB | Alfred Morris | 30.00 | 0.64 | 28 |
| 31 | WR | DeAndre Hopkins | 28.00 | 0.62 | 31 |
| 32 | QB | Russell Wilson | 23.00 | 0.59 | 36 |
| 33 | RB | Lamar Miller | 29.00 | 0.58 | 29 |
| 34 | QB | Peyton Manning | 22.00 | 0.52 | 38 |
| 35 | RB | Carlos Hyde | 26.00 | 0.40 | 33 |
| 36 | WR | Brandin Cooks | 24.00 | 0.35 | 35 |
| 37 | RB | Justin Forsett | 25.00 | 0.34 | 34 |
| 38 | QB | Drew Brees | 18.00 | 0.23 | 43 |
| 39 | RB | Melvin Gordon | 22.00 | 0.16 | 37 |
| 40 | RB | Jonathan Stewart | 21.00 | 0.10 | 39 |
| 41 | WR | Jordan Matthews | 20.00 | 0.09 | 40 |
| 42 | WR | Julian Edelman | 20.00 | 0.09 | 41 |
| 43 | RB | Frank Gore | 19.00 | -0.02 | 42 |
| 44 | WR | Sammy Watkins | 17.00 | -0.11 | 44 |
| 45 | RB | Todd Gurley | 17.00 | -0.14 | 45 |
| 46 | RB | Joique Bell | 16.00 | -0.20 | 46 |
| 47 | WR | Keenan Allen | 15.00 | -0.24 | 47 |
| 48 | RB | Latavius Murray | 14.00 | -0.32 | 48 |
| 49 | WR | DeSean Jackson | 13.00 | -0.38 | 49 |
| 50 | TE | Greg Olsen | 7.00 | -0.40 | 63 |
| 51 | RB | Joseph Randle | 12.00 | -0.44 | 50 |
| 52 | RB | Andre Ellington | 12.00 | -0.44 | 51 |
| 53 | TE | Travis Kelce | 6.00 | -0.47 | 70 |
| 54 | RB | TJ Yeldon | 11.00 | -0.50 | 52 |
| 55 | RB | Giovani Bernard | 11.00 | -0.50 | 53 |
| 56 | TE | Martellus Bennett | 5.00 | -0.54 | 76 |
| 57 | QB | Ben Roethlisberger | 7.00 | -0.55 | 69 |
| 58 | RB | Rashad Jennings | 10.00 | -0.56 | 54 |
| 59 | RB | CJ Spiller | 10.00 | -0.56 | 55 |
| 60 | WR | Vincent Jackson | 10.00 | -0.58 | 56 |
| 61 | WR | Amari Cooper | 10.00 | -0.58 | 57 |
| 62 | TE | Jason Witten | 4.00 | -0.61 | 81 |
| 63 | WR | Golden Tate | 9.00 | -0.64 | 58 |
| 64 | WR | Andre Johnson | 9.00 | -0.64 | 59 |
| 65 | WR | Brandon Marshall | 9.00 | -0.64 | 60 |
| 66 | TE | Jordan Cameron | 3.00 | -0.68 | 87 |
| 67 | RB | LeGarrette Blount | 8.00 | -0.69 | 62 |
| 68 | WR | Mike Wallace | 8.00 | -0.71 | 61 |
| 69 | RB | Isaiah Crowell | 7.00 | -0.75 | 64 |
| 70 | RB | Chris Ivory | 7.00 | -0.75 | 66 |
| 71 | TE | Zach Ertz | 2.00 | -0.76 | 111 |
| 72 | TE | Julius Thomas | 2.00 | -0.76 | 115 |
| 73 | TE | Dwayne Allen | 2.00 | -0.76 | 120 |
| 74 | QB | Matt Ryan | 4.00 | -0.76 | 83 |
| 75 | RB | Ryan Mathews | 7.00 | -0.76 | 67 |
| 76 | WR | Jeremy Maclin | 7.00 | -0.78 | 65 |
| 77 | WR | Jarvis Landry | 7.00 | -0.78 | 68 |
| 78 | RB | Shane Vereen | 5.00 | -0.82 | 74 |
| 79 | TE | Delanie Walker | 1.00 | -0.83 | 145 |
| 80 | WR | Allen Robinson | 6.00 | -0.84 | 71 |
| 81 | RB | Tre Mason | 4.00 | -0.85 | 78 |
| 82 | RB | Doug Martin | 4.00 | -0.85 | 79 |
| 83 | RB | Tevin Coleman | 4.00 | -0.85 | 82 |
| 84 | RB | Alfred Blue | 4.00 | -0.85 | 86 |
| 85 | WR | Eric Decker | 6.00 | -0.86 | 72 |
| 86 | WR | Martavis Bryant | 6.00 | -0.86 | 73 |
| 87 | TE | Antonio Gates | 0.00 | -0.86 | 172 |
| 88 | RB | Ameer Abdullah | 3.00 | -0.88 | 89 |
| 89 | RB | Devonta Freeman | 3.00 | -0.88 | 90 |
| 90 | RB | Bishop Sankey | 3.00 | -0.88 | 91 |
| 91 | RB | Arian Foster | 3.00 | -0.88 | 92 |
| 92 | RB | Duke Johnson | 3.00 | -0.88 | 94 |
| 93 | RB | Darren McFadden | 3.00 | -0.88 | 95 |
| 94 | WR | Nelson Agholor | 5.00 | -0.89 | 75 |
| 95 | WR | Roddy White | 5.00 | -0.89 | 77 |
| 96 | QB | Cam Newton | 2.00 | -0.90 | 97 |
| 97 | QB | Tony Romo | 2.00 | -0.90 | 112 |
| 98 | QB | Tom Brady | 2.00 | -0.90 | 116 |
| 99 | RB | Danny Woodhead | 2.00 | -0.91 | 98 |
| 100 | RB | Charles Sims | 2.00 | -0.91 | 100 |
| 101 | RB | Andre Williams | 2.00 | -0.91 | 101 |
| 102 | RB | Lorenzo Taliaferro | 2.00 | -0.91 | 102 |
| 103 | RB | Fred Jackson | 2.00 | -0.91 | 103 |
| 104 | RB | Montee Ball | 2.00 | -0.91 | 106 |
| 105 | RB | DeAngelo Williams | 2.00 | -0.91 | 109 |
| 106 | RB | Knile Davis | 2.00 | -0.91 | 110 |
| 107 | RB | Denard Robinson | 2.00 | -0.91 | 117 |
| 108 | RB | David Cobb | 2.00 | -0.91 | 121 |
| 109 | RB | Theo Riddick | 2.00 | -0.91 | 122 |
| 110 | RB | Jerick McKinnon | 2.00 | -0.91 | 123 |
| 111 | RB | Reggie Bush | 2.00 | -0.91 | 124 |
| 112 | RB | Terrance West | 2.00 | -0.91 | 127 |
| 113 | RB | Jay Ajayi | 2.00 | -0.91 | 130 |
| 114 | WR | Torrey Smith | 4.00 | -0.93 | 80 |
| 115 | WR | Michael Floyd | 4.00 | -0.93 | 84 |
| 116 | WR | Charles Johnson | 4.00 | -0.93 | 85 |
| 117 | RB | Darren Sproles | 1.00 | -0.95 | 134 |
| 118 | RB | David Johnson | 1.00 | -0.95 | 136 |
| 119 | RB | Jonas Gray | 1.00 | -0.95 | 137 |
| 120 | RB | James White | 1.00 | -0.95 | 144 |
| 121 | RB | Daniel Herron | 1.00 | -0.95 | 146 |
| 122 | WR | Larry Fitzgerald | 3.00 | -0.96 | 88 |
| 123 | WR | Brandon LaFell | 3.00 | -0.96 | 93 |
| 124 | QB | Ryan Tannehill | 1.00 | -0.97 | 148 |
| 125 | QB | Eli Manning | 1.00 | -0.97 | 150 |
| 126 | WR | Marques Colston | 2.00 | -0.99 | 96 |
| 127 | WR | John Brown | 2.00 | -0.99 | 99 |
| 128 | WR | Breshad Perriman | 2.00 | -0.99 | 104 |
| 129 | WR | Kendall Wright | 2.00 | -0.99 | 105 |
| 130 | WR | Steve Smith Sr | 2.00 | -0.99 | 107 |
| 131 | WR | Percy Harvin | 2.00 | -0.99 | 108 |
| 132 | WR | Anquan Boldin | 2.00 | -0.99 | 113 |
| 133 | WR | Pierre Garcon | 2.00 | -0.99 | 114 |
| 134 | WR | Davante Adams | 2.00 | -0.99 | 118 |
| 135 | WR | DeVante Parker | 2.00 | -0.99 | 119 |
| 136 | WR | Cody Latimer | 2.00 | -0.99 | 125 |
| 137 | WR | Donte Moncrief | 2.00 | -0.99 | 129 |
| 138 | WR | Victor Cruz | 1.00 | -1.03 | 131 |
| 139 | WR | Eddie Royal | 1.00 | -1.03 | 135 |
| 140 | WR | Marvin Jones | 1.00 | -1.03 | 138 |
| 141 | WR | Malcom Floyd | 1.00 | -1.03 | 149 |
Alternatively, if we just look at the rankings provided by ESPN, we can get an idea of what round we should be aiming for for each position (considering just filling the starting lineup).
| Average Rank | Average Round | Target Round | |
| QB | 78.1 | 7 | 6 |
| RB1 | 9.7 | 1 | 1 |
| RB2 | 42.2 | 4 | 3 |
| WR1 | 17.2 | 2 | 2 |
| WR2 | 42.9 | 4 | 4 |
| FLEX | 61.2 | 6 | 5 |
| TE | 90.3 | 8 | 7 |
| DST | 145.5 | 13 | Penultimate |
| K | 161.3 | 14 | Ultimate |
Now it’s a matter of getting players that beat or equal the average round, per ESPN:
QB: Aaron Rodgers (2), Andrew Luck (3), Russell Wilson (3), Peyton Manning (4), Drew Brees (4), Ben Roethlisberger (6)
RB1: L Bell (1), A Peterson (1), E Lacy (1), J Charles (1), M Lynch (1), CJ Anderson (1), M Forte (1), D Murray (1), L McCoy (1)
RB2: J Hill (2), M Ingram (2), A Morris (3), L Miller (3), C Hyde (3), J Forsett (3)
WR1: A Brown (1), D Thomas (1), D Bryant (2), O Beckham Jr. (2), J Nelson (2), J Jones (2), C Johnson (2), AJ Green (2), A Jeffrey (2), R Cobb (2), TY Hilton (2)
WR2: M Evans (3), E Sanders (3), K Benjamin (3), D Hopkins (3), B Cooks (3), J Matthews (4), J Edelman (4), S Watkins (4), K Allen (4)
TE: R Gronkowski (1), J Graham (3), G Olsen (6), T Kelce (6), M Bennett (7), J Witten (7), J Cameron (8)
Flex: M Gordon (4), J Stewart (4), F Gore (4), T Gurley (4), J Bell (4), L Murray (4), D Jackson (5), J Randle (5), A Ellington (5), TJ Yeldon (5), G Bernard (5), R Jennings (5), CJ Spiller (5), V Jackson (5), A Cooper (5), G Tate (5), A Johnson (5), B Marshall (5)
This second approach is useful because it is adaptive to the league being considered. For example, I am in a league where QBs are particularly valuable. Thus, I can follow the progress of the draft based on the remaining availability of above-average players. If, for example, all the above-average QBs are going much quicker than predicted and there are only a few left, it might be a good idea to move up a round or so for that position.
z.mckinnon 
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