Things I’ve Worked On: Fantasy Football Methodology 2016

Last year, I came up with a ranking system based on auction values and z-scores for players. Upon reflection and reading a bit more about auction value, it probably over-amplified within-position variance. That said, the determination of replacement value in auctions tends to be imperfect, so I wanted to add a small boost (max $10) to auction values from FantasyPros based on the within-position z-scores for starting roster positions (12 QBs, 24 RBs, 24 WRs, and 12 TEs in my league). Here are my rankings for the 2016 season:

Rank Player Original Value Z-Boost Value Total Value
1 Antonio Brown, PIT 64.00 9.78 73.78
2 Julio Jones, ATL 56.00 8.19 64.19
3 Odell Beckham, NYG 54.00 7.79 61.79
4 Adrian Peterson, MIN 51.00 7.76 58.76
5 Todd Gurley, LA 50.00 7.54 57.54
6 Jamaal Charles, KC 49.00 7.33 56.33
7 David Johnson, ARI 48.00 7.11 55.11
8 DeAndre Hopkins, HOU 48.00 6.60 54.60
9 Rob Gronkowski, NE 43.00 10.00 53.00
10 Lamar Miller, HOU 44.00 6.25 50.25
11 Ezekiel Elliott, DAL 37.00 4.74 41.74
11 Devonta Freeman, ATL 37.00 4.74 41.74
13 Dez Bryant, DAL 37.00 4.42 41.42
13 A.J. Green, CIN 37.00 4.42 41.42
15 Cam Newton, CAR 33.00 7.51 40.51
16 Le’Veon Bell, PIT 35.00 4.31 39.31
17 Jordy Nelson, GB 35.00 4.03 39.03
18 Aaron Rodgers, GB 31.00 7.01 38.01
19 LeSean McCoy, BUF 32.00 3.66 35.66
19 Eddie Lacy, GB 32.00 3.66 35.66
19 Mark Ingram, NO 32.00 3.66 35.66
22 Alshon Jeffery, CHI 32.00 3.43 35.43
23 Allen Robinson, JAC 30.00 3.04 33.04
24 Doug Martin, TB 29.00 3.02 32.02
25 Mike Evans, TB 28.00 2.64 30.64
25 T.Y. Hilton, IND 28.00 2.64 30.64
25 Brandon Marshall, NYJ 28.00 2.64 30.64
28 Russell Wilson, SEA 25.00 5.50 30.50
29 Thomas Rawls, SEA 27.00 2.59 29.59
30 Greg Olsen, CAR 24.00 5.58 29.58
31 Sammy Watkins, BUF 27.00 2.44 29.44
32 Andrew Luck, IND 24.00 5.25 29.25
33 Keenan Allen, SD 26.00 2.24 28.24
34 C.J. Anderson, DEN 25.00 2.16 27.16
35 Jordan Reed, WAS 22.00 5.12 27.12
36 Brandin Cooks, NO 25.00 2.04 27.04
36 Demaryius Thomas, DEN 25.00 2.04 27.04
38 Randall Cobb, GB 24.00 1.85 25.85
39 Amari Cooper, OAK 23.00 1.65 24.65
40 Matt Forte, NYJ 22.00 1.51 23.51
40 Latavius Murray, OAK 22.00 1.51 23.51
40 Carlos Hyde, SF 22.00 1.51 23.51
43 Drew Brees, NO 19.00 4.00 23.00
44 Jeremy Maclin, KC 21.00 1.25 22.25
44 Eric Decker, NYJ 21.00 1.25 22.25
46 Jonathan Stewart, CAR 20.00 1.08 21.08
46 DeMarco Murray, TEN 20.00 1.08 21.08
46 Matt Jones, WAS 20.00 1.08 21.08
49 Doug Baldwin, SEA 20.00 1.05 21.05
49 Kelvin Benjamin, CAR 20.00 1.05 21.05
51 Golden Tate, DET 18.00 0.66 18.66
51 Jarvis Landry, MIA 18.00 0.66 18.66
53 Jeremy Hill, CIN 18.00 0.65 18.65
53 Jeremy Langford, CHI 18.00 0.65 18.65
55 Michael Floyd, ARI 18.00 0.00 18.00
55 Julian Edelman, NE 18.00 0.00 18.00
57 Tom Brady, NE 15.00 2.99 17.99
58 Delanie Walker, TEN 14.00 3.26 17.26
59 Larry Fitzgerald, ARI 17.00 0.00 17.00
60 Ryan Mathews, PHI 16.00 0.22 16.22
61 Jordan Matthews, PHI 16.00 0.00 16.00
61 DeSean Jackson, WAS 16.00 0.00 16.00
63 Emmanuel Sanders, DEN 15.00 0.00 15.00
64 Frank Gore, IND 15.00 0.00 15.00
65 Travis Kelce, KC 12.00 2.80 14.80
66 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT 12.00 2.24 14.24
67 Giovani Bernard, CIN 14.00 0.00 14.00
67 Melvin Gordon, SD 14.00 0.00 14.00
67 Donte Moncrief, IND 14.00 0.00 14.00
70 Coby Fleener, NO 11.00 2.56 13.56
71 Dion Lewis, NE 13.00 0.00 13.00
71 Ameer Abdullah, DET 13.00 0.00 13.00
71 John Brown, ARI 13.00 0.00 13.00
74 Rashad Jennings, NYG 12.00 0.00 12.00
74 Arian Foster, MIA 12.00 0.00 12.00
74 Danny Woodhead, SD 12.00 0.00 12.00
74 Allen Hurns, JAC 12.00 0.00 12.00
78 Duke Johnson, CLE 11.00 0.00 11.00
78 T.J. Yeldon, JAC 11.00 0.00 11.00
78 DeVante Parker, MIA 11.00 0.00 11.00
78 Josh Gordon, CLE 11.00 0.00 11.00
78 Michael Crabtree, OAK 11.00 0.00 11.00
83 Carson Palmer, ARI 9.00 1.48 10.48
84 Torrey Smith, SF 10.00 0.00 10.00
85 Antonio Gates, SD 8.00 1.87 9.87
85 Gary Barnidge, CLE 8.00 1.87 9.87
87 Blake Bortles, JAC 8.00 1.23 9.23
88 Isaiah Crowell, CLE 9.00 0.00 9.00
88 Justin Forsett, BAL 9.00 0.00 9.00
88 Stefon Diggs, MIN 9.00 0.00 9.00
88 Marvin Jones, DET 9.00 0.00 9.00
92 Tyler Eifert, CIN 7.00 1.63 8.63
93 LeGarrette Blount, NE 8.00 0.00 8.00
93 Chris Ivory, JAC 8.00 0.00 8.00
93 Kevin White, CHI 8.00 0.00 8.00
96 Ladarius Green, PIT 6.00 1.40 7.40
96 Jimmy Graham, SEA 6.00 1.40 7.40
96 Jason Witten, DAL 6.00 1.40 7.40
99 Charles Sims, TB 7.00 0.00 7.00
99 DeAngelo Williams, PIT 7.00 0.00 7.00
99 Tyler Lockett, SEA 7.00 0.00 7.00
99 Vincent Jackson, TB 7.00 0.00 7.00
99 Willie Snead, NO 7.00 0.00 7.00
104 Tyrod Taylor, BUF 6.00 0.73 6.73
105 Jay Ajayi, MIA 6.00 0.00 6.00
105 Darren Sproles, PHI 6.00 0.00 6.00
105 Shane Vereen, NYG 6.00 0.00 6.00
105 Sterling Shepard, NYG 6.00 0.00 6.00
109 Philip Rivers, SD 5.00 0.48 5.48
109 Eli Manning, NYG 5.00 0.48 5.48
111 Bilal Powell, NYJ 5.00 0.00 5.00
111 Theo Riddick, DET 5.00 0.00 5.00
111 Derrick Henry, TEN 5.00 0.00 5.00
111 James Starks, GB 5.00 0.00 5.00
111 Steve Smith, BAL 5.00 0.00 5.00
111 Markus Wheaton, PIT 5.00 0.00 5.00
111 Zach Ertz, PHI 5.00 0.00 5.00
118 Tavon Austin, LA 4.00 0.00 4.00
118 Corey Coleman, CLE 4.00 0.00 4.00
118 Julius Thomas, JAC 4.00 0.00 4.00
121 Andy Dalton, CIN 3.00 0.00 3.00
121 Kirk Cousins, WAS 3.00 0.00 3.00
121 Matthew Stafford, DET 3.00 0.00 3.00
121 Jameis Winston, TB 3.00 0.00 3.00
121 Jordan Howard, CHI 3.00 0.00 3.00
121 C.J. Prosise, SEA 3.00 0.00 3.00
121 Javorius Allen, BAL 3.00 0.00 3.00
121 Tevin Coleman, ATL 3.00 0.00 3.00
121 Jerick McKinnon, MIN 3.00 0.00 3.00
121 Ronnie Hillman, DEN 3.00 0.00 3.00
121 Terrance Williams, DAL 3.00 0.00 3.00
121 Travis Benjamin, SD 3.00 0.00 3.00
121 Zach Miller, CHI 3.00 0.00 3.00
121 Dwayne Allen, IND 3.00 0.00 3.00
121 Martellus Bennett, NE 3.00 0.00 3.00
136 Chris Johnson, ARI 2.00 0.00 2.00
136 Darren McFadden, DAL 2.00 0.00 2.00
136 Karlos Williams, BUF 2.00 0.00 2.00
136 DeAndre Washington, OAK 2.00 0.00 2.00
136 Josh Ferguson, IND 2.00 0.00 2.00
136 Mohamed Sanu, ATL 2.00 0.00 2.00
136 Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN 2.00 0.00 2.00
136 Pierre Garcon, WAS 2.00 0.00 2.00
144 Tony Romo, DAL 1.00 0.00 1.00
144 Derek Carr, OAK 1.00 0.00 1.00
144 Ryan Tannehill, MIA 1.00 0.00 1.00
144 Cameron Artis-Payne, CAR 1.00 0.00 1.00
144 Devontae Booker, DEN 1.00 0.00 1.00
144 Tim Hightower, NO 1.00 0.00 1.00
144 Kamar Aiken, BAL 1.00 0.00 1.00
144 Michael Thomas, NO 1.00 0.00 1.00
144 Laquon Treadwell, MIN 1.00 0.00 1.00
144 Sammie Coates, PIT 1.00 0.00 1.00
144 Eric Ebron, DET 1.00 0.00 1.00
144 Charles Clay, BUF 1.00 0.00 1.00
156 Matt Ryan, ATL 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Alex Smith, KC 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Marcus Mariota, TEN 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Joe Flacco, BAL 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Jay Cutler, CHI 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Brock Osweiler, HOU 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Teddy Bridgewater, MIN 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Robert Griffin, CLE 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Jared Goff, LA 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Sam Bradford, PHI 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Mark Sanchez, DEN 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Blaine Gabbert, SF 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Chris Thompson, WAS 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Spencer Ware, KC 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 C.J. Spiller, NO 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Shaun Draughn, SF 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Benny Cunningham, LA 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Paul Perkins, NYG 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Kenneth Dixon, BAL 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Alfred Blue, HOU 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Ka’Deem Carey, CHI 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Andre Ellington, ARI 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Tre Mason, LA 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Alfred Morris, DAL 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Tyler Ervin, HOU 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Charcandrick West, KC 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Mike Tolbert, CAR 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Kenyan Drake, MIA 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Damien Williams, MIA 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Wendell Smallwood, PHI 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Zach Line, MIN 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Khiry Robinson, NYJ 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Terrance West, BAL 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Robert Turbin, IND 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Christine Michael, SEA 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Dexter McCluster, TEN 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Knile Davis, KC 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Jonas Gray, JAC 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 James White, NE 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Matt Asiata, MIN 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Branden Oliver, SD 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Mike Gillislee, BUF 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Taiwan Jones, OAK 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Zach Zenner, DET 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Marcel Reece, OAK 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Keith Marshall, WAS 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Brandon Bolden, NE 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Denard Robinson, JAC 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Ryan Hewitt, CIN 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Stevan Ridley, DET 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 David Cobb, TEN 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Kelvin Taylor, SF 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Jonathan Grimes, HOU 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Phillip Dorsett, IND 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Kenny Britt, LA 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Mike Wallace, BAL 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Devin Funchess, CAR 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Kendall Wright, TEN 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Nelson Agholor, PHI 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Jermaine Kearse, SEA 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 William Fuller, HOU 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Robert Woods, BUF 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Ted Ginn, CAR 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Jaelen Strong, HOU 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Justin Hunter, TEN 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Rishard Matthews, TEN 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Brandon LaFell, CIN 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Tyler Boyd, CIN 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Breshad Perriman, BAL 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Anquan Boldin, DET 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Chris Hogan, NE 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Jamison Crowder, WAS 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Cole Beasley, DAL 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Victor Cruz, NYG 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Josh Doctson, WAS 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Rueben Randle, PHI 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Bruce Ellington, SF 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Kenny Stills, MIA 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Eddie Royal, CHI 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Wes Welker, 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Cecil Shorts, HOU 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Davante Adams, GB 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Jarius Wright, MIN 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Danny Amendola, NE 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Seth Roberts, OAK 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Brandon Coleman, NO 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Albert Wilson, KC 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Justin Hardy, ATL 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Chris Conley, KC 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Kyle Rudolph, MIN 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Jordan Cameron, MIA 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Clive Walford, OAK 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Jacob Tamme, ATL 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Jared Cook, GB 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Richard Rodgers, GB 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Will Tye, NYG 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Vance McDonald, SF 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Ben Watson, BAL 0.00 0.00 0.00
156 Cameron Brate, TB 0.00 0.00 0.00

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